Unfortunately, Illinois fell flat in 2014-15. Not only did they finish 8th in the conference standings over the season, but they also were unable to make the NCAA Tournament and were eliminated in the 1st Round of the NIT by an underwhelming Alabama team. It's not a year that Illini fans will want to remember for very long.
However, with the offseason upon us, it's time for optimism again in Champaign. Every fanbase gets to hope about the next season during the offseason and can't be proven wrong until at least the opening tip-off of the season. For Illinois, it's finally time to see whether head coach John Groce can turn the corner for the Illini.
Let's look at three reason to believe in Illinois for next season.
Three Reasons To Believe In Illinois For 2015-16
#1. This Team Wasn't That Far Off Last Season
Look, there's no denying that Illinois didn't have a bright 2013-14 season. Anytime a team comes in with realistic expectations of an NCAA Tournament and ends up being knocked out in the 1st Round of the NIT, it's going to be characterized as disappointing. However, when look ahead to next season, fans also need to acknowledge that Illinois wasn't that far away from at least making the field for the NCAA Tournament and as a result, having a successful season. Just look at the stats on the losses for Illinois last season.
2013-14 Losses For Illinois:
- 85.7% away from Champaign
- 71.4% to postseason qualifying teams
- 64.3% by 10 points or less
- 57.1% to NCAA Tournament teams
In total, every loss for Illinois last season either came to an NCAA Tournament team or away from Champaign. That certainly does not mean Illinois removes blame for its losses, but it also gives the sense that if a few things had fell the right away, the Illini really could have made some noise. Avoid some injuries and/or suspensions in Big Ten play or have a bench contributor emerge and who knows where this team ends up. Though it's true they weren't right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament field, but they were at least in shouting distance and who knows how much one or two wins would have pushed them up in the seeding.
[Read more after the break.]
#2. This Is A Roster Loaded With Talent
Head coach John Groce may have differing opinions among fans, but one area where there hasn't been a ton of dispute is on the recruiting trail. Groce has missed some elite prospects since coming to Champaign, but he has also managed to consistently recruit at a high level and considering that Illinois has not won the Big Ten since 2005, to be recruiting at the top of the Big Ten tells a lot about Groce's recruiting acumen.
Well, this could be the year where the talent starts to take hold for the Illinois roster. The team is certainly losing talented contributors in guys like Nnanna Egwu and Rayvonte Rice, but the Illini will not only return Leron Black, Malcolm Hill, and Kendrick Nunn, who were all 4-star recruits, but is also adding three 4-star recruits including guard Jalen Coleman-Lands, who many perceive as one of the best prospects in the class and a potential replacement for Rayvonte Rice next season.
Having talent alone doesn't guarantee that a team will have success, but with the addition of its 2015 recruiting class - ranked #2 in the Big Ten according to 247Sports - this could be the year where that talent finally starts to click and adds to a roster that wasn't that far off last season.
#3. Illinois Has Clear Replacements For Every Graduating Player
The Illini may not have been that far off in 2015-16 and they do add one of the better recruiting classes in the country, but there's no denying that they also lose several major contributors including three starters, Aaron Cosby who saw the floor in the first 19 games, and Austin Colbert who played important minutes off the bench. In total, those losses will account for 47.6% of minutes played for Illinois last season. That's nothing to overlook.
The good news for Illinois is that they have clear replacements for every one of those lost contributors. That doesn't mean these new players can match those losses identically, but it does mean that there are at least options on the roster. This won't be a case of Illinois losing a star player and inserting a random 3-star recruit or walk-on into the lineup. Instead, the Illini will look to quality backups, transfers, or elite recruits to step into the lineup.
In the backcourt, Illinois is set to lose starters in Rayvonte Rice and Ahmad Starks, but adds 4-star prospects in Jalen Coleman-Lands and Aaron Jordan and expect the return of Tracy Abrams from injury. All three have the potential to not only contribute, but earn starting roles. And in the frontcourt, Illinois is losing Nnanna Egwu and Austin Colbert, but adds a transfer in Mike Thorne, Jr. and a recruit in Darius Paul. Though Paul will likely have to develop before grabbing serious minutes, Thorne is expected to start immediately and could be an adequate replacement for Egwu.
There's no guarantee that Illinois will be able to adequately replace its offseason losses, but they certainly have solid replacements on deck that should mesh well with the returning roster.
Other Links:
- Terran Petteway To Leave Nebraska Huskers For 2015 NBA Draft
- McDonald's All-American Game Breakdown
- Three Takeaways from Wisconsin vs. Duke
- Jake Layman to Return to Maryland
- Sam Dekker (Wisconsin) Declares For 2015 NBA Draft
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